Thursday, December 30, 2010

Going long Airlines $FAA and short energy $XLE

Airlines (sector ETF $FAA) and energy ($XLE) are usually inversely correlated, both appear to have a clear "psychological" spread that has opened up in the past few weeks:  http://www.marketpsychadvisor.com/moodanalysis/sectordivergence.  This type of emotional arbitrage is a risky strategy, and it's important to identify the catalyst that will cause the spread to narrow.  In this case we're anticipating a reversal after the New Year as window dressing unwinds (there is no hurry to get in on this trade).  Earlier this week the snowstorms on the U.S. East Coast and cold weather caused the spread to widen further.  In low volatility environments like this, such spreads can widen for many days (and even weeks), which is why we wait for a large gap between the two sectors and a clear catalyst before putting on this arbitrage.

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